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Saudi oil revenue climbs despite disruption

Saudi Arabia’s oil export earnings rose to their highest level in more than three years in March, underscoring how wartime disruption in the Middle East lifted prices even as physical shipments through the Gulf came under pressure.

Oil export revenue reached about $24.7 billion, equivalent to roughly SAR92.6 billion, during the first full month of the conflict that disrupted energy flows around the Strait of Hormuz. The rise marked a sharp improvement for the kingdom’s trade account and offered a fiscal cushion at a time when Riyadh is balancing heavy domestic spending, energy-market volatility and its long-running effort to diversify the economy.

The jump was driven less by a straightforward increase in export volumes than by a combination of higher crude prices, route adjustments and the use of alternative logistics. Saudi Aramco shifted more barrels through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, using the East-West pipeline to reduce exposure to Gulf shipping lanes. The strategy helped preserve part of the kingdom’s export programme, though the limits of rerouting became clear as overall crude flows fell below normal levels.

March data showed Saudi crude exports dropping to just under 5 million barrels per day, the lowest level in records dating back to 2002. Production also fell sharply from the previous month as conflict-related disruption affected regional supply chains, tanker availability and confidence in Gulf shipping. The contrast between record-low volumes and a three-year high in export value highlights the scale of the price shock that followed the escalation.

Brent crude moved above $100 a barrel during the crisis, transforming the revenue picture for exporters with spare route capacity or accessible inventories. For Saudi Arabia, the price effect outweighed the decline in shipped volumes, at least in value terms. The kingdom also benefited from long-standing investment in infrastructure that allows oil to move from eastern fields to western export terminals away from the Strait of Hormuz.

Yanbu became central to that adjustment. The Red Sea facility, linked to the main oil-producing region by pipeline, handled a much larger share of outbound flows after Gulf routes became more difficult. Ship-tracking estimates during March showed Yanbu loadings rising well above past averages, although the port and pipeline system could not fully replace the scale of exports normally routed through Ras Tanura and other Gulf terminals.

The developments reinforce Saudi Arabia’s dual role as both a stabilising oil supplier and a country exposed to regional security risks. Riyadh has spent decades building flexibility into its export network, but the March figures show that even the world’s leading crude exporter cannot completely avoid the effects of a major disruption around Hormuz, a corridor that normally carries a large share of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade.

Higher export revenue will ease some pressure on public finances. Saudi Arabia recorded a sizeable budget deficit in 2025 after weaker oil income and rising expenditure on infrastructure, defence, tourism, technology and Vision 2030 projects. A stronger oil-revenue month improves cash flow, but it does not remove the broader fiscal challenge. Government spending plans remain ambitious, and the economy still depends heavily on hydrocarbon receipts despite growth in non-oil sectors.

Energy policy is also becoming more complicated. Riyadh has been working with OPEC+ partners to manage supply and support market stability, but wartime disruption has altered the usual balance between quotas, spare capacity and emergency supply needs. Saudi Arabia had prepared to raise output and exports before the conflict escalated, but the closure and disruption risks around Gulf routes forced a shift from volume expansion to defensive logistics.

Asia remains the key market. China, Japan, South Korea and buyers across South Asia continue to account for a large share of Saudi crude demand, but delivery schedules have become harder to manage. Aramco has had to adjust allocations, grades and loading points, with some customers receiving more barrels from Red Sea routes and others facing lower availability. The changes have also affected freight costs and insurance premiums, raising the delivered cost of crude.

The rise in export value has wider implications for import-dependent economies. Higher Saudi receipts reflect higher costs for refiners and consumers elsewhere, particularly in countries heavily reliant on Middle East crude. The price surge has fed into trade deficits, fuel costs and inflation risks across Asia and Europe, even as producers gain short-term revenue.
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