Freight operators face only limited relief from the US-Iran agreement as mine risks, war-risk insurance, Red Sea disruption and uneven vessel flows continue to keep global transport costs elevated.The accord has eased fears of a wider Gulf conflict and allowed some tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, but it has not restored the confidence needed for a broad return to normal routing. Shipping groups, insurers and charterers remain cautious as naval mines, electronic interference and uncertainty over Iran’s future control of the waterway continue to shape decisions on cargo movement.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central concern for oil, gas and bulk shipping. Before the conflict, the passage carried about a fifth of the world’s oil flows and was one of the busiest maritime chokepoints, with more than 100 ships moving through on peak days. That pattern has not returned. Some vessels have resumed sailings, but the main traffic lane remains constrained while mine-clearance work and security assessments continue.
Three Saudi-flagged supertankers carrying about six million barrels of crude passed through the strait after the agreement, while LNG movements from Qatar and tanker activity around Fujairah signalled a partial reopening. The movements were important for energy markets, but they did not amount to a full restart. Hundreds of vessels have been delayed in or around the Gulf since the escalation began, creating backlogs that will take weeks or months to unwind.
Insurance remains a major barrier. War-risk premiums rose sharply during the conflict, and underwriters are unlikely to cut prices quickly while the threat of mines, drone strikes or vessel seizure remains unresolved. Even when physical passage is technically possible, shipowners must decide whether the saving from a shorter route offsets higher insurance, fuel, crew and security costs. For many operators, that calculation still favours caution.
The uncertainty is also feeding into container markets, where the Iran deal has done little to solve the Red Sea problem. The Houthi campaign that began in late 2023 pushed most large container lines away from the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope. That diversion adds roughly 10 to 14 days to Asia-Europe voyages, absorbs vessel capacity and raises bunker consumption. A diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran does not automatically guarantee safe Red Sea passage, because the Yemen theatre involves separate military, political and commercial risks.
Freight rates had already begun rising again before the deal as peak-season demand started early and carriers imposed increases on transpacific and Asia-Europe routes. The benchmark container index climbed to about $3,549 per 40-foot box in mid-June, after a 23 per cent surge in the previous week. Rates from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean also remained sensitive to capacity shortages caused by longer voyages around Africa.
The freight industry is therefore dealing with a complicated mix of relief and constraint. Energy markets have taken comfort from signs that Gulf exports can resume, but logistics managers still face higher costs, uncertain sailing schedules and the risk that a single security incident could reverse the improvement. The agreement lowers the chance of immediate military escalation, but it does not remove the operational premium built into shipping contracts since the Red Sea crisis and Gulf disruption began.
Carriers are also reluctant to shift networks quickly. Reopening a route is not as simple as sending ships back through Suez or Hormuz. Liner schedules are planned weeks in advance, port slots must be adjusted, empty containers must be repositioned, and delayed cargo must be cleared from congested terminals. A sudden return to older routes could disrupt networks almost as much as the original diversion, especially during the peak shipping season.
For importers and exporters, the effect is likely to be uneven. Large retailers and energy companies with long-term contracts may secure capacity at manageable rates, while smaller shippers face higher spot prices and less predictable transit times. Gulf-bound cargoes remain exposed to vessel availability, port congestion and changing security guidance. Manufacturers reliant on just-in-time supply chains are likely to keep larger inventories or build longer delivery buffers into procurement plans.
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