OPEC+ is set to debate an increase of about 137,000 barrels per day in oil production from April, according to delegates familiar with the discussions, signalling a cautious step towards unwinding voluntary supply cuts as producers balance price stability with market share.The proposed adjustment forms part of a gradual plan to return a portion of the 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary reductions that several members, led by Saudi Arabia, have kept in place since 2023. Under the framework agreed last year, increments of roughly 137,000 bpd per month could be restored over an extended period, subject to market conditions and consensus among the alliance’s core producers.
Saudi Arabia, the group’s de facto leader, and partners including the UAE have shouldered a significant share of the curbs. The strategy has aimed to support crude prices amid uneven global demand growth and rising non-OPEC supply, particularly from the United States, Brazil and Guyana. Brent crude has traded within a relatively narrow band in recent months, reflecting competing pressures from geopolitical tensions, softer economic data in some major economies and resilient output outside the alliance.
Delegates indicate that the April increase remains under consideration and is not yet finalised. Ministers are expected to assess demand projections for the second quarter, inventory levels across key consuming regions and compliance rates within the group before endorsing any change. OPEC’s own forecasts have projected steady global demand growth in 2026, driven by Asia and aviation fuel consumption, while other agencies have pointed to a more moderate pace amid energy transition policies and efficiency gains.
For Saudi Arabia, a phased return of supply offers an opportunity to recover market share ceded during the period of deeper cuts, without triggering a sharp fall in prices. Riyadh has repeatedly stressed the importance of “proactive and precautionary” management of output, arguing that sudden shifts could destabilise the market. The kingdom has maintained production close to 9 million bpd under its voluntary commitment, well below its installed capacity.
The UAE, which has invested heavily to expand its production capacity beyond 4 million bpd, has also signalled interest in utilising a higher baseline agreed within OPEC+. Abu Dhabi has argued that its upstream investments warrant recognition within the quota system, though it has broadly aligned with Saudi Arabia on the need for collective discipline.
Russia, another central member of the alliance, continues to coordinate output policy with Gulf producers despite facing sanctions related to the conflict in Ukraine. Moscow’s exports have been rerouted towards Asia, and its compliance with pledged reductions has at times come under scrutiny from other members. Analysts note that cohesion between Riyadh and Moscow remains critical to the credibility of any supply adjustment.
Energy economists caution that the timing of additional barrels will depend on how quickly global inventories draw down during the northern hemisphere spring. Commercial stockpiles in OECD countries have fluctuated around their five-year averages, while refinery maintenance season could temporarily dampen crude demand. At the same time, escalating tensions in parts of the Middle East and disruptions to shipping routes have injected a geopolitical premium into prices.
Market participants are also watching US shale producers, whose output has reached record levels even as drilling activity has moderated. Technological efficiencies have allowed operators to sustain production with fewer rigs, complicating OPEC+ efforts to tighten supply. Should prices rise sharply, shale growth could accelerate, eroding the alliance’s influence.
Within OPEC+, compliance remains a sensitive issue. Several African members have struggled to meet their quotas due to operational constraints, while others have faced pressure to adhere strictly to agreed targets. Monitoring committees have sought to improve transparency by reviewing production data from secondary sources and encouraging compensation plans for overproduction.
A measured 137,000 bpd increase would represent a modest adjustment relative to global consumption of more than 100 million bpd, yet it carries symbolic weight. It would mark the first step in a broader recalibration of supply policy after an extended period of restraint. Traders have reacted cautiously to indications of a possible April move, with futures curves reflecting expectations of balanced conditions rather than a pronounced surplus.
Topics
Spotlight