Tunisia is entering its new economic year with a mix of restraint and ambition as the government presses ahead with reforms designed to stabilise public finances, revive growth and ease mounting social pressures. The outlook, shaped by the release of the annual economic balance document and extended parliamentary deliberations, reflects a strategy that seeks to balance fiscal discipline with targeted spending aimed at restoring confidence among households, investors and international partners.Officials project modest growth driven by a gradual recovery in tourism, steadier agricultural output following uneven rainfall cycles, and a push to lift exports of manufactured goods and agri-food products. Policymakers acknowledge that the starting point remains difficult. Public debt is elevated, foreign exchange reserves are thin by historical standards, and inflation has weighed heavily on purchasing power. The year ahead is framed as one of consolidation rather than dramatic expansion, with the emphasis placed on preventing further slippage while laying the groundwork for a more durable rebound.
Central to the government’s approach is a renewed focus on fiscal discipline. Budget assumptions point to restrained public sector hiring, tighter control of subsidies and a gradual reduction in the deficit. Energy and food subsidies, long a strain on the state’s finances, are being recalibrated to better target lower-income households, a move officials argue is necessary to protect the most vulnerable while containing costs. The shift has been politically sensitive, sparking debate in parliament and concern among labour groups about the social impact of higher prices.
Revenue measures also feature prominently. Authorities are counting on improved tax collection through digitalisation and broader compliance rather than sweeping new levies. Efforts to bring parts of the informal economy into the tax net are expected to contribute incrementally, though officials concede progress will be gradual. Customs reforms and stricter oversight at ports are also intended to curb revenue leakage and support domestic producers facing unfair competition.
Monetary policy remains a delicate balancing act. The central bank has signalled its determination to keep inflation on a downward trajectory, even as businesses complain about the cost of borrowing. Interest rates are expected to remain relatively high in the near term, reflecting concerns over price stability and currency pressures. Bank lending is therefore likely to stay selective, favouring established firms and export-oriented sectors, while smaller enterprises continue to face financing constraints.
Tourism is once again a pillar of cautious optimism. Early indicators suggest stable demand from key European markets, supported by improved security perceptions and competitive pricing. Authorities are keen to move beyond volume-driven strategies by encouraging higher-value tourism, investing in cultural sites, and expanding conference and medical tourism offerings. Success on this front is seen as vital for foreign currency earnings and employment, particularly in coastal regions.
Agriculture presents a more mixed picture. While certain crops have benefited from favourable conditions and better access to inputs, water scarcity remains a structural challenge. The government has prioritised investment in irrigation efficiency and drought-resistant crops, alongside support for farmers facing higher fertiliser and energy costs. Food security considerations have gained prominence, shaping both import strategies and domestic production incentives.
Manufacturing and exports are expected to provide incremental support to growth, especially in automotive components, electrical equipment and agri-food processing. Trade links with European partners remain crucial, and officials are seeking to diversify markets in Africa and the Middle East. Logistics bottlenecks and administrative hurdles persist, however, limiting the speed at which exporters can respond to new opportunities.
Social considerations run through the economic agenda. Wage negotiations with labour unions, particularly in the public sector, are likely to be closely watched, given their implications for both household incomes and fiscal sustainability. Employment creation, especially for younger people, remains a pressing issue. Programmes aimed at vocational training, start-up support and regional development are being promoted as part of a broader effort to address disparities that have fuelled discontent.
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