Jordan has been reclassified as an upper-middle-income economy by the World Bank, marking a significant statistical upgrade for the kingdom after revised national accounts pushed its gross national income per capita above the required threshold.The change, effective from 1 July 2026 under the World Bank’s fiscal year 2027 income classifications, moves Jordan out of the lower-middle-income group and places it among economies with gross national income per capita between $4,636 and $14,375. Jordan’s figure was put at $5,260, up from $4,430 in the previous classification and $624 above the minimum required for the upper-middle-income band.
The upgrade follows a comprehensive rebasing of Jordan’s national accounts by the Department of Statistics. The exercise expanded coverage through updated surveys, new data sources and improved compilation methods, showing that the economy was nearly 10 per cent larger than earlier estimates. Steady growth of 2.8 per cent in 2025 helped push the revised income measure clearly across the threshold.
The World Bank’s classification is based on gross national income per capita calculated under the Atlas method, which smooths short-term exchange-rate swings and uses the previous calendar year’s data. It is not a measure of average wages or household income, but it remains a widely used benchmark for comparing economies and guiding development finance policies.
Jordan was one of five economies to move from lower-middle-income to upper-middle-income status in the latest update, alongside Micronesia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. No economy assessed in the latest round moved down. Togo also advanced, shifting from low-income to lower-middle-income status.
The reclassification gives Amman a symbolic boost at a time when the kingdom is trying to sustain growth, attract investment and deepen reforms under its Economic Modernisation Vision. It may also influence the way international lenders, donors and development agencies assess Jordan’s financing profile, although changes in access to concessional finance usually occur gradually and depend on broader policy and credit assessments.
Jordan’s economy has shown resilience despite pressure from regional conflict, disrupted trade routes and high energy-import dependence. Growth reached 2.6 per cent in 2024 and rose to an estimated 2.8 per cent in 2025, supported by agriculture, manufacturing and services. The International Monetary Fund expects real GDP growth of 2.7 per cent in 2026 and 3.1 per cent in 2027, pointing to gradual acceleration rather than a sharp rebound.
Inflation has remained contained compared with many regional peers. Average inflation stood at 1.8 per cent in 2025, while projections for 2026 remain moderate at around 2.5 per cent. The relative price stability has helped protect purchasing power, but it has not resolved deeper labour-market weaknesses.
Unemployment remains Jordan’s most persistent economic challenge. Joblessness was around 21.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, with women facing a far higher rate of 33.9 per cent. Female labour force participation slipped to 14.4 per cent, underlining the gap between macroeconomic stability and inclusive labour-market outcomes.
Public finances also remain under pressure. Jordan continues to balance reform commitments, social spending needs and security-related demands while managing a high debt burden. The IMF’s programme with Jordan has focused on fiscal consolidation, revenue mobilisation, social protection and reforms aimed at improving the business climate.
The kingdom’s external position is vulnerable to shocks because of its dependence on imported energy and food, as well as its exposure to tourism, remittances and regional logistics. Conflict across the Middle East has increased uncertainty, with potential risks from higher commodity prices, weaker investor sentiment and disruption to trade corridors.
Even so, Jordan has maintained a reputation for policy continuity and institutional stability. The authorities have pursued reforms in public finance, investment regulation, digital government and energy resilience. The national accounts revision also signals an effort to improve data quality, a factor that can strengthen investor confidence when matched by transparent implementation.
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