Washington has been warned that any attempt to turn failed ceasefire diplomacy with Tehran into a broader settlement over oil flows, nuclear activity and regional security will be a drawn-out process after 21 hours of talks in Islamabad ended without agreement, leaving a fragile truce under strain and energy markets on edge. The negotiations, led by US Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, were the highest-level direct contact between the two sides since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The talks ran from Saturday into early Sunday in Pakistan’s capital and broke down over the central issues that have shadowed every serious attempt at a settlement between Washington and Tehran: Iran’s nuclear programme, the future of uranium enrichment, access through the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran’s backing for armed regional allies. Washington said it wanted a firm Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon, alongside the dismantling of major enrichment facilities and the transfer of highly enriched uranium. Iran signalled that those demands crossed its red lines and accused the US side of overreach and shifting terms.
That stalemate quickly spilled into the shipping arena. After the negotiations failed, the US military said it would begin a blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas from Monday, while allowing vessels travelling to and from non-Iranian ports to continue transiting Hormuz. President Donald Trump coupled that move with threats to intercept ships that pay tolls to Iran and to destroy mines the US says Tehran has placed in the waterway. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards answered that military vessels approaching the strait would be treated as ceasefire violations, sharply raising the danger of miscalculation in one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Oil traders responded with speed rather than patience. Brent crude and US crude both jumped more than 7% to move back above $100 a barrel after the collapse of the talks and the blockade announcement, reversing the relief that had followed the ceasefire. AP reported Brent at about $102.29 and US crude at $104.24, while Reuters also put the rise above 7% in early trading. The move underlined how tightly diplomacy, military signalling and inflation risk are now tied to events around Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of globally traded oil normally passes.
The political message from both sides suggests the path ahead will be neither quick nor linear. Vance said the United States needed an “affirmative commitment” that Iran would not seek a nuclear weapon or the tools needed to build one quickly. Tehran, for its part, insisted it had moved close to agreement on some points and argued that Washington pushed the talks off course at the last moment. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar urged both parties to preserve the ceasefire and said Islamabad would try to facilitate a fresh round of dialogue in the coming days. That leaves open the possibility of more contact, but not of a rapid breakthrough.
History also argues against expectations of speed. The 2015 nuclear deal was the product of negotiations that stretched well over a year, and the current agenda is wider and more politically combustible because it links nuclear restrictions with wartime claims, maritime access, proxy warfare and questions of deterrence after weeks of fighting. AP noted that the ceasefire itself is due to expire on April 22, adding another deadline to an already crowded bargaining table. That means diplomacy is taking place under military pressure rather than in its absence.
The human and strategic backdrop is equally severe. AP reported that the war, which began on Feb. 28, has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, more than 2,000 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states, while damaging infrastructure across several countries. Reuters said the fighting has killed thousands across the Gulf and throttled energy supplies. Those losses make compromise harder politically even as they make de-escalation more urgent diplomatically.
The talks ran from Saturday into early Sunday in Pakistan’s capital and broke down over the central issues that have shadowed every serious attempt at a settlement between Washington and Tehran: Iran’s nuclear programme, the future of uranium enrichment, access through the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran’s backing for armed regional allies. Washington said it wanted a firm Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon, alongside the dismantling of major enrichment facilities and the transfer of highly enriched uranium. Iran signalled that those demands crossed its red lines and accused the US side of overreach and shifting terms.
That stalemate quickly spilled into the shipping arena. After the negotiations failed, the US military said it would begin a blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas from Monday, while allowing vessels travelling to and from non-Iranian ports to continue transiting Hormuz. President Donald Trump coupled that move with threats to intercept ships that pay tolls to Iran and to destroy mines the US says Tehran has placed in the waterway. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards answered that military vessels approaching the strait would be treated as ceasefire violations, sharply raising the danger of miscalculation in one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Oil traders responded with speed rather than patience. Brent crude and US crude both jumped more than 7% to move back above $100 a barrel after the collapse of the talks and the blockade announcement, reversing the relief that had followed the ceasefire. AP reported Brent at about $102.29 and US crude at $104.24, while Reuters also put the rise above 7% in early trading. The move underlined how tightly diplomacy, military signalling and inflation risk are now tied to events around Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of globally traded oil normally passes.
The political message from both sides suggests the path ahead will be neither quick nor linear. Vance said the United States needed an “affirmative commitment” that Iran would not seek a nuclear weapon or the tools needed to build one quickly. Tehran, for its part, insisted it had moved close to agreement on some points and argued that Washington pushed the talks off course at the last moment. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar urged both parties to preserve the ceasefire and said Islamabad would try to facilitate a fresh round of dialogue in the coming days. That leaves open the possibility of more contact, but not of a rapid breakthrough.
History also argues against expectations of speed. The 2015 nuclear deal was the product of negotiations that stretched well over a year, and the current agenda is wider and more politically combustible because it links nuclear restrictions with wartime claims, maritime access, proxy warfare and questions of deterrence after weeks of fighting. AP noted that the ceasefire itself is due to expire on April 22, adding another deadline to an already crowded bargaining table. That means diplomacy is taking place under military pressure rather than in its absence.
The human and strategic backdrop is equally severe. AP reported that the war, which began on Feb. 28, has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, more than 2,000 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states, while damaging infrastructure across several countries. Reuters said the fighting has killed thousands across the Gulf and throttled energy supplies. Those losses make compromise harder politically even as they make de-escalation more urgent diplomatically.
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