Crypto trading platforms are heading into first-quarter earnings season under pressure, with analysts cutting expectations for Coinbase and warning that weaker trading volumes, lower token prices and softer retail participation could sharply compress profits after the exuberance that followed Donald Trump’s return to the White House faded. Coinbase’s own latest reported quarter had already shown how quickly the cycle can turn, while Robinhood’s last earnings exposed a similar slowdown in crypto activity even as its wider brokerage business remained resilient.
Barclays has downgraded Coinbase to underweight from equal weight and cut its price target to $140 from $148, arguing that weak crypto volumes are likely to weigh on profitability and leave the stock with limited valuation support at current levels. The shift matters because Coinbase is still seen as one of the clearest listed proxies for retail crypto sentiment in the United States, and any deterioration in its transaction revenue tends to colour expectations for the wider sector. Robinhood has not faced the same formal rating cut in the material reviewed, but analysts have reduced targets and lowered near-term expectations there as well, reflecting a broader concern that the first three months of 2026 did not provide the trading conditions exchanges and broker platforms need to deliver a strong quarter.
That caution follows a bruising start to the year for digital assets. Bitcoin suffered its weakest first quarter since 2018, a swing large enough to dent trading enthusiasm, hurt customer activity and inflict accounting pain on companies with large direct exposure to token prices. Strategy, the software company turned bitcoin treasury vehicle formerly known as MicroStrategy, disclosed an unrealised loss of about $14.5 billion for the quarter, underlining how deeply the market drawdown affected crypto-linked balance sheets. Even though bitcoin has bounced off the lows in April, the quarter that companies are about to report was marked more by retrenchment than momentum.
For Coinbase, the backdrop is especially awkward because the company had already posted a surprise loss for the fourth quarter of 2025. Reuters reported that Coinbase recorded a net loss of $666.7 million, its first quarterly loss since the third quarter of 2023, after weaker trading volumes hit transaction revenue. Consumer transaction revenue fell by more than 45 per cent in that quarter, showing how dependent the platform remains on market activity despite management’s long effort to diversify the business through subscriptions, custody, staking and stablecoins. A 61 per cent rise in stablecoin revenue offered evidence that diversification can cushion the blow, but not enough to offset the collapse in trading income when sentiment turns.
Robinhood’s picture is not identical, but the same fault line is visible. When the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results on 10 February, revenue missed analyst expectations because crypto trading slowed, even though the group still delivered record overall revenue and growth in equity and options trading. Crypto revenue came in below forecasts, and the company said softer activity and lower rebate rates were factors. That matters for first-quarter expectations because it suggests the weakness in crypto was not confined to a single exchange, but was feeding through to multiple consumer-facing platforms. Robinhood is due to report first-quarter 2026 results on 28 April, making it one of the first major listed groups to offer a detailed read on how retail traders behaved during the quarter.
Investors will also be looking beyond trading fees to assess which companies are better insulated from another soft patch. Coinbase has tried to build a more balanced model through subscription and services revenue, while Robinhood has increasingly leaned on Gold subscriptions, cash management and broader retail brokerage products. Circle, another listed crypto-linked name, has also come under pressure, with Barron’s reporting a downgrade tied to margin concerns in its USDC business. The warning there is different in form but similar in implication: even where volumes or supply hold up, revenue quality and distribution economics can still weaken earnings.
The bigger question for the sector is whether the post-election optimism that lifted crypto shares late last year created expectations that were too high for a market still driven by volatility, geopolitics and retail risk appetite. Trump’s return to office and hopes for a friendlier regulatory climate had helped fuel enthusiasm across digital assets and related equities. Yet first-quarter trading appears to have reminded Wall Street that a supportive political backdrop does not guarantee steady customer activity or smooth earnings.
Barclays has downgraded Coinbase to underweight from equal weight and cut its price target to $140 from $148, arguing that weak crypto volumes are likely to weigh on profitability and leave the stock with limited valuation support at current levels. The shift matters because Coinbase is still seen as one of the clearest listed proxies for retail crypto sentiment in the United States, and any deterioration in its transaction revenue tends to colour expectations for the wider sector. Robinhood has not faced the same formal rating cut in the material reviewed, but analysts have reduced targets and lowered near-term expectations there as well, reflecting a broader concern that the first three months of 2026 did not provide the trading conditions exchanges and broker platforms need to deliver a strong quarter.
That caution follows a bruising start to the year for digital assets. Bitcoin suffered its weakest first quarter since 2018, a swing large enough to dent trading enthusiasm, hurt customer activity and inflict accounting pain on companies with large direct exposure to token prices. Strategy, the software company turned bitcoin treasury vehicle formerly known as MicroStrategy, disclosed an unrealised loss of about $14.5 billion for the quarter, underlining how deeply the market drawdown affected crypto-linked balance sheets. Even though bitcoin has bounced off the lows in April, the quarter that companies are about to report was marked more by retrenchment than momentum.
For Coinbase, the backdrop is especially awkward because the company had already posted a surprise loss for the fourth quarter of 2025. Reuters reported that Coinbase recorded a net loss of $666.7 million, its first quarterly loss since the third quarter of 2023, after weaker trading volumes hit transaction revenue. Consumer transaction revenue fell by more than 45 per cent in that quarter, showing how dependent the platform remains on market activity despite management’s long effort to diversify the business through subscriptions, custody, staking and stablecoins. A 61 per cent rise in stablecoin revenue offered evidence that diversification can cushion the blow, but not enough to offset the collapse in trading income when sentiment turns.
Robinhood’s picture is not identical, but the same fault line is visible. When the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results on 10 February, revenue missed analyst expectations because crypto trading slowed, even though the group still delivered record overall revenue and growth in equity and options trading. Crypto revenue came in below forecasts, and the company said softer activity and lower rebate rates were factors. That matters for first-quarter expectations because it suggests the weakness in crypto was not confined to a single exchange, but was feeding through to multiple consumer-facing platforms. Robinhood is due to report first-quarter 2026 results on 28 April, making it one of the first major listed groups to offer a detailed read on how retail traders behaved during the quarter.
Investors will also be looking beyond trading fees to assess which companies are better insulated from another soft patch. Coinbase has tried to build a more balanced model through subscription and services revenue, while Robinhood has increasingly leaned on Gold subscriptions, cash management and broader retail brokerage products. Circle, another listed crypto-linked name, has also come under pressure, with Barron’s reporting a downgrade tied to margin concerns in its USDC business. The warning there is different in form but similar in implication: even where volumes or supply hold up, revenue quality and distribution economics can still weaken earnings.
The bigger question for the sector is whether the post-election optimism that lifted crypto shares late last year created expectations that were too high for a market still driven by volatility, geopolitics and retail risk appetite. Trump’s return to office and hopes for a friendlier regulatory climate had helped fuel enthusiasm across digital assets and related equities. Yet first-quarter trading appears to have reminded Wall Street that a supportive political backdrop does not guarantee steady customer activity or smooth earnings.
Topics
Cryptocurrency