Global air cargo demand rose 11.2 per cent in February from a year earlier, outpacing an 8.5 per cent increase in capacity and giving the industry a strong start to 2026 before conflict in the Middle East unsettled fuel markets and disrupted some of the world’s most important freight hubs. International Air Transport Association data showed international cargo demand climbed 11.6 per cent, while overall cargo load factor improved to 46 per cent, underscoring firmer utilisation across the sector.
The Geneva-based industry body said the February figures were supported in part by shipments moved ahead of the Lunar New Year, but it also pointed to broader underlying strength. Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said the month showed strong growth even after accounting for the seasonal lift, while warning that the outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of February had made the outlook for the rest of the year harder to read. He said sharply rising fuel costs, fuel scarcity in parts of the world and severe disruption to key cargo hubs in the Gulf had altered operating conditions.
Behind the headline numbers, the operating backdrop had turned more supportive for freight carriers before the geopolitical shock. IATA said global goods trade grew 5.2 per cent year on year in January. Global manufacturing sentiment also strengthened in February, with the purchasing managers’ index rising to 53.1, while the PMI for new export orders reached 51.4, its highest level since July 2021 and above the threshold associated with expansion. At the same time, jet fuel prices were 1.2 per cent higher than a year earlier, highlighting that demand strength was developing alongside renewed cost pressure.
Regional performance showed a market led by Africa, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. African airlines posted the fastest growth, with demand up 21 per cent from a year earlier, though from a small base. Middle Eastern carriers recorded a 16.5 per cent rise, while Asia-Pacific airlines, which account for the largest share of global cargo traffic at roughly 36 per cent, posted 13.6 per cent growth. North American carriers saw demand rise 9.4 per cent and European airlines 6.9 per cent. Latin America and the Caribbean lagged with growth of 0.7 per cent, the weakest among the regions tracked by IATA.
Trade-lane data suggested the expansion was broad rather than concentrated in a single corridor. Africa-Asia traffic jumped 61.9 per cent, Europe-Asia volumes rose 13.1 per cent, and Middle East-Asia traffic was up 24 per cent. Europe-North America extended a 25-month run of growth with a 5.7 per cent increase, while traffic within Asia rose 9.1 per cent. Those figures indicated that supply chains were still leaning on air transport for high-value and time-sensitive cargo even as shippers continued to grapple with a volatile geopolitical map and uneven manufacturing recovery.
Pricing trends also pointed to a firmer market. IATA’s February cargo analysis said yields rose 6.6 per cent from a year earlier, the first increase in 11 months, while Brent averaged $71.2 a barrel and jet fuel rose 6 per cent from January. That combination matters because air freight demand can stay resilient for pharmaceuticals, electronics, perishables and industrial components even when higher fuel costs compress airline margins. It also suggests carriers entered March with better pricing power than they had for much of 2025.
That steadier February picture did not survive untouched into March. Reuters reported that fighting involving the United States, Israel and Iran grounded flights across parts of the Middle East, including major hubs in Doha and Dubai, contributing to a 22 per cent reduction in global air cargo capacity, according to aviation consultancy Aevean. Air cargo capacity on the Asia–Middle East–Europe corridor fell 39 per cent, while Middle East-based carriers, responsible for about 13 per cent of global cargo capacity, were hit directly. Freightos data cited by Reuters showed spot rates surged on several corridors, including a 70 per cent jump from South Asia to Europe and a 58 per cent rise from South Asia to North America.
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