Donald Trump has urged countries hit by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz to buy aviation fuel from the United States, but the appeal collides with a refining system that is already producing jet fuel at historically high levels and has limited room to shift much more output into export markets. The mismatch is sharpening concern across aviation and energy markets as the Iran conflict drives up the cost of refined fuels faster than crude itself. Trump said on March 31 that countries unable to secure jet fuel because of the Strait should “buy from the U. S.”, adding that America had “plenty”. He paired that message with a broader attack on allies that stayed out of the U. S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, singling out Britain and France. His remarks came as tanker traffic through the strait remained severely disrupted and energy markets stayed on edge over the security of one of the world’s most important oil and fuel chokepoints.
What makes the statement hard to translate into physical supply is that jet fuel is not simply a matter of pumping more crude. It must be refined, and U. S. refineries are already tilted heavily towards aviation fuel compared with past years. The U. S. Energy Information Administration said in March that refiners produced a record-high share of jet fuel in 2024 and that output flexibility is constrained by refinery configuration, crude grades and the cost of modifying infrastructure. EIA data for January 2026 show kerosene-type jet fuel still accounting for about 10.8% of refinery yield, close to the elevated levels seen through late 2025.
That leaves little spare room for a sudden export surge, especially when domestic demand remains firm. The EIA expects U. S. jet fuel consumption to reach a record high in 2026, reflecting sustained air travel demand even after efficiency gains and changing flight patterns. A system already running near its practical balance between petrol, diesel and jet fuel cannot easily flood overseas buyers with extra barrels without tightening another part of the market or stretching refinery operations further.
The pressure is visible in price behaviour. Reuters reported earlier this month that refined fuels have become a bigger problem than crude, with jet fuel leading the jump and Singapore spot prices touching a record high of $225.44 a barrel on March 4 before easing. That is a warning for Europe and Asia because aviation markets there are more exposed to imported fuel than the United States, and disruptions in Gulf supply feed through quickly to airlines and airports.
Airlines are already reacting as though the squeeze may last longer than a brief market shock. Reuters reported on March 30 that the industry had entered 2026 expecting record profits of $41 billion, only to see those expectations threatened by a doubling in jet fuel prices after the conflict began. United Airlines, Air New Zealand and SAS have announced capacity cuts or fare increases, while others have imposed fuel surcharges. Aviation veteran Rigas Doganis described the situation as an “existential challenge” for carriers if fuel remains elevated and consumer demand softens.
For U. S. carriers, the pain is unevenly distributed. Delta Air Lines has gained some protection from owning the Monroe refinery near Philadelphia, which allows it to retain part of the refining margin that other airlines must pay to outside suppliers. Reuters reported that North American jet fuel averaged about $179 a barrel in the week of March 20, against roughly $110 for Brent crude, while U. S. spot jet fuel prices were higher still at about $4.56 a gallon. American Airlines has said higher fuel prices added about $400 million to its first-quarter fuel bill since late January, and United’s chief executive warned that sustained prices could add about $11 billion to its annual fuel costs.
The wider trade picture also undercuts the idea of effortless abundance. U. S. petroleum product exports rose strongly in January, averaging 7 million barrels a day, but the gains were led by diesel rather than jet fuel. EIA data on transportation fuels show distillate exports in 2025 remained below 2019 levels overall, even as flows to some destinations such as the United Kingdom and the Netherlands strengthened. That suggests the U. S. remains a major exporter, but not one with unlimited flexibility across every fuel grade at a moment of geopolitical strain.
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