Iran is pressing Yemen’s Houthis to prepare for a fresh campaign against Red Sea shipping if the United States broadens its war against the Islamic Republic, according to a Bloomberg report citing European officials, adding a new layer of risk to a conflict that has already shaken oil markets and disrupted maritime trade. The warning comes as the Houthis have signalled they are ready to step up military action and after they launched attacks linked to the widening regional war.
Any return to sustained Houthi attacks on vessels moving through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint would revive one of the most damaging trade shocks seen since the Gaza war first spilled into the Red Sea. The waterway links the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal route beyond it. The US Energy Information Administration has described it as a strategic route for oil and petroleum products, while UN trade officials have previously warned that disruption in the Red Sea can force ships onto longer and costlier voyages around southern Africa, straining supply chains and lifting freight costs.
The immediate trigger for renewed concern is the sharp escalation between Washington and Tehran. Reuters has reported that the war, which began on February 28 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran, has expanded across the region, with Iran threatening energy flows, the Strait of Hormuz largely shut, and the Houthis entering the conflict directly with missile fire towards Israel. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said last week that the group’s “fingers are on the trigger”, warning that any wider intervention against Iran could bring a broader response. That statement was followed by Houthi confirmation that they had launched an attack on Israel for the first time in the current war.
That sequence has raised fears in Europe and the wider shipping industry that Tehran may seek to activate another pressure point beyond Hormuz. Reuters reported on March 26 that the Houthis had declared themselves ready to join the war if needed, raising the prospect of attacks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and commercial traffic moving through it. Analysts cited by Reuters said the group appeared to be holding back for a strategically important moment, such as a sharper attack on Iranian territory or a major shift in the regional balance, before reopening a maritime front that had already imposed heavy costs on global trade.
Shipping markets have little doubt about the stakes. Reuters reported that major carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM are already avoiding the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb because of security fears, with traffic being redirected around the Cape of Good Hope. Morocco’s Tanger Med port has said it is preparing for increased flows as rerouted vessels arrive on longer schedules, while carriers have imposed surcharges that add substantially to cargo costs. That diversion lengthens journeys by 10 to 14 days on some routes, disrupting delivery timetables for manufacturers and retailers and increasing fuel consumption at a time when oil prices are already under pressure.
Energy markets are reacting just as sharply. Reuters said Brent crude climbed to $112.78 a barrel on March 29 and was heading for one of its biggest monthly rises on record after the Houthis widened the war and markets began pricing in simultaneous threats to Hormuz and the Red Sea. A separate Reuters analysis warned that global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies were approaching a worst-case scenario, especially for Asian buyers, if the regional conflict deepened further. While Hormuz remains the more critical oil artery in volume terms, a renewed Houthi campaign would compound the shock by hitting tankers, container ships and insurers already on edge.
European governments are watching the maritime dimension with increasing alarm. France said last week it had approached about 35 countries to discuss a future defensive mission aimed at reopening Hormuz once fighting stops, underscoring how seriously European capitals now treat threats to sea lanes from the Gulf to the Red Sea. EU energy ministers have also been coordinating their response to tighter oil and gas markets, with concern focused not only on crude supply but also on diesel, jet fuel and gasoline. A second front at Bab el-Mandeb would deepen those worries by choking one of the main routes between Europe and Asia.
For Tehran, the value of Houthi pressure is strategic as much as military. The Houthis have shown over the past two years that they can unsettle commercial shipping with drones, missiles and the threat of boarding or sabotage, even when Western naval forces are present. Reuters noted in a March 25 analysis that the effort to secure Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks proved costly and only partly effective, with many shippers ultimately choosing to avoid the route altogether. That record helps explain why European officials are treating any sign of Iranian direction or encouragement as a serious warning rather than rhetoric.
Any return to sustained Houthi attacks on vessels moving through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint would revive one of the most damaging trade shocks seen since the Gaza war first spilled into the Red Sea. The waterway links the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal route beyond it. The US Energy Information Administration has described it as a strategic route for oil and petroleum products, while UN trade officials have previously warned that disruption in the Red Sea can force ships onto longer and costlier voyages around southern Africa, straining supply chains and lifting freight costs.
The immediate trigger for renewed concern is the sharp escalation between Washington and Tehran. Reuters has reported that the war, which began on February 28 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran, has expanded across the region, with Iran threatening energy flows, the Strait of Hormuz largely shut, and the Houthis entering the conflict directly with missile fire towards Israel. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said last week that the group’s “fingers are on the trigger”, warning that any wider intervention against Iran could bring a broader response. That statement was followed by Houthi confirmation that they had launched an attack on Israel for the first time in the current war.
That sequence has raised fears in Europe and the wider shipping industry that Tehran may seek to activate another pressure point beyond Hormuz. Reuters reported on March 26 that the Houthis had declared themselves ready to join the war if needed, raising the prospect of attacks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and commercial traffic moving through it. Analysts cited by Reuters said the group appeared to be holding back for a strategically important moment, such as a sharper attack on Iranian territory or a major shift in the regional balance, before reopening a maritime front that had already imposed heavy costs on global trade.
Shipping markets have little doubt about the stakes. Reuters reported that major carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM are already avoiding the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb because of security fears, with traffic being redirected around the Cape of Good Hope. Morocco’s Tanger Med port has said it is preparing for increased flows as rerouted vessels arrive on longer schedules, while carriers have imposed surcharges that add substantially to cargo costs. That diversion lengthens journeys by 10 to 14 days on some routes, disrupting delivery timetables for manufacturers and retailers and increasing fuel consumption at a time when oil prices are already under pressure.
Energy markets are reacting just as sharply. Reuters said Brent crude climbed to $112.78 a barrel on March 29 and was heading for one of its biggest monthly rises on record after the Houthis widened the war and markets began pricing in simultaneous threats to Hormuz and the Red Sea. A separate Reuters analysis warned that global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies were approaching a worst-case scenario, especially for Asian buyers, if the regional conflict deepened further. While Hormuz remains the more critical oil artery in volume terms, a renewed Houthi campaign would compound the shock by hitting tankers, container ships and insurers already on edge.
European governments are watching the maritime dimension with increasing alarm. France said last week it had approached about 35 countries to discuss a future defensive mission aimed at reopening Hormuz once fighting stops, underscoring how seriously European capitals now treat threats to sea lanes from the Gulf to the Red Sea. EU energy ministers have also been coordinating their response to tighter oil and gas markets, with concern focused not only on crude supply but also on diesel, jet fuel and gasoline. A second front at Bab el-Mandeb would deepen those worries by choking one of the main routes between Europe and Asia.
For Tehran, the value of Houthi pressure is strategic as much as military. The Houthis have shown over the past two years that they can unsettle commercial shipping with drones, missiles and the threat of boarding or sabotage, even when Western naval forces are present. Reuters noted in a March 25 analysis that the effort to secure Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks proved costly and only partly effective, with many shippers ultimately choosing to avoid the route altogether. That record helps explain why European officials are treating any sign of Iranian direction or encouragement as a serious warning rather than rhetoric.
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