Speaking at an industry gathering, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi said he was “really worried” about a scenario in which AI-driven data centres, electrification trends and population growth combine to outstrip the pace at which new gas supply can be brought online. Qatar is working through a major multistage expansion programme, including North Field East and North Field South, which together aim to lift national LNG capacity to about 126 million tonnes a year by the early 2030s. Al-Kaabi noted that even with Qatar’s capacity boost, global supply may fall short of projected consumption if other producers do not accelerate investment decisions.
His comments come at a time when global LNG trade has been reshaped by shifting energy flows, with Europe emerging as a premium market after the reduction of Russian pipeline deliveries and Asia maintaining strong baseline demand led by China, South Korea and Japan. Traders and utilities have been signalling that long-term contracts are being snapped up more quickly than in previous market cycles. Buyers have been seeking longer tenures and greater volume flexibility to hedge against volatility in both spot prices and geopolitical risks. Analysts say that the combination of these factors suggests end-users are anticipating a tighter market even before the minister’s intervention.
The rise of AI-powered computing has brought an additional layer of uncertainty. Large technology firms have disclosed multi-billion-dollar plans for data centre expansions, with electricity consumption from hyperscale facilities expected to surge as generative-AI workloads intensify. Several studies have highlighted that gas-fired plants are likely to remain a key stabilising source of power for grids under pressure from intermittent renewable energy. This prospect has pushed energy forecasters to revise upward their long-term assumptions for natural gas demand, especially in countries where renewables integration is advancing but storage technologies remain costly.
Qatar has positioned itself as a reliable long-term LNG supplier and has attracted European and Asian partners into its North Field developments, strengthening strategic ties with import-dependent economies. Al-Kaabi emphasised that LNG remains essential for energy security and that complacency among global producers could leave markets exposed to volatile pricing cycles. Some forecast models from leading consultancies indicate that without significant final investment decisions by 2026–2028, the world may confront a structural shortfall during the late 2030s, potentially amplifying competition among developed and emerging markets for spot cargoes.
Geopolitical uncertainties have already underscored the fragility of gas supply chains. Disruptions to shipping routes, fluctuating upstream production in parts of Africa and delays in new US liquefaction capacity have periodically strained availability. Demand centres have been hedging against these pressures by diversifying suppliers and investing in regasification infrastructure. Countries in Europe, the Gulf and parts of Asia have been fast-tracking floating storage and regasification units to provide an additional buffer for unexpected surges in consumption or supply interruptions.
The LNG industry faces a challenging investment climate, with developers balancing the long-term outlook for gas against the global push to decarbonise. Some financial institutions have tightened lending policies for fossil-fuel projects, placing pressure on companies to secure stronger offtake commitments before proceeding with multi-billion-dollar terminals. However, producers argue that natural gas will continue to play a central role in the energy transition as a lower-emission alternative to coal and as a flexible backup for renewables. This argument has gained traction in parts of Asia and Europe, where policymakers view LNG as an essential pillar of industrial and household energy supply.
Al-Kaabi’s remarks underline a broader debate about how policymakers, investors and technology firms will balance decarbonisation goals with the escalating electricity needs of digital industries. Large-scale AI deployment has prompted calls for governments to reconsider power-sector planning assumptions, particularly around grid reliability and the mix of energy sources required to sustain rapid technological advancement. Gas markets may feel the effects most acutely if AI-related electricity use expands faster than anticipated.
Topics
Qatar