UAE airfares are likely to remain elevated through much of 2026 as airlines contend with costly diversions, constrained capacity and volatile fuel prices caused by prolonged conflict across the Middle East.Even a durable ceasefire involving Iran may not quickly bring ticket prices back towards levels expected before the conflict. Airlines would need time to restore schedules, rebuild capacity and return aircraft to shorter routes after months of adapting networks to restrictions across strategically important airspace.
Industry modelling indicates that global airfares could remain around 5% to 10% above pre-war expectations during 2026 even under a comparatively favourable resolution. A prolonged period of disruption could produce substantially greater increases as carriers absorb higher fuel bills and operate fewer seats on affected routes.
The impact is particularly significant for the UAE because Dubai and Abu Dhabi occupy central positions in the international aviation network. Gulf hubs account for about 14% of global transit passenger traffic, while roughly one-fifth of travel between Europe and Asia normally connects through airports in the region.
Restrictions affecting Iran, Iraq and Lebanon have forced airlines to redesign some flight paths between Europe and Asia. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has advised operators to avoid those airspaces until August 31 because of the possibility of renewed military activity. Earlier warnings covering several other Gulf countries, including the UAE, were subsequently withdrawn, but airlines continue conducting their own security assessments.
Detours add flying time and fuel consumption and can reduce the number of rotations an aircraft completes. Carriers may also need additional fuel reserves when operating through areas where sudden closures or diversions remain possible. Emirates has maintained capacity despite the pressure and has continued routing passengers through Dubai, including travellers heading towards destinations in India and Australia. The airline has also taken precautions that include carrying additional fuel.
Capacity across the wider Middle East nevertheless remains below levels that would otherwise have been expected. International capacity to and from countries in the region was nearly 40% lower year on year during April, while passenger demand was down almost 50%. Middle Eastern airlines operated roughly half as many flights in March as they did a year earlier, and forward bookings through major Gulf hubs for the second and third quarters dropped by more than 40%.
More than 12,000 flights were cancelled globally during May, removing about two million seats. Some airlines have also concentrated reductions on routes producing weaker returns rather than making cuts purely on security grounds, showing how geopolitical disruption is increasingly being combined with efforts to protect profitability.
Fuel remains one of the biggest uncertainties. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has affected energy flows and pushed up operating costs. Jet fuel prices rose faster than crude during parts of the crisis because airlines were exposed not only to higher oil prices but also to stronger refining margins and concerns about product availability and storage.
Although jet fuel prices have eased from peaks reached during the conflict, airlines have shown little willingness to trigger aggressive fare reductions. Carriers remain under pressure to rebuild margins after absorbing sharp increases in fuel and operational expenses, while strong demand on many routes gives them greater ability to hold fares above earlier levels.
The adjustment is also delayed by the way airlines buy fuel and sell tickets. Fuel hedging means cost movements do not immediately pass through airline accounts, while a substantial proportion of seats are sold months before departure. Falling oil prices following a ceasefire would therefore not necessarily translate into cheaper tickets within days or weeks.
Travellers from the UAE are already adapting by comparing destinations more closely, booking later and placing greater emphasis on flexible tickets and refund conditions. Persistent uncertainty could favour shorter regional trips and destinations reached through routes that avoid heavily restricted airspace.
A sustained easing of the conflict would allow connectivity to recover progressively, although reopening airspace would represent only the first stage. Airlines would still have to restore withdrawn services, reposition aircraft, rebuild passenger confidence and decide whether temporary routings adopted during the conflict should be abandoned.
The longer the disruption lasts, the greater the possibility that some alternative routes become permanent. Airlines that establish workable corridors bypassing traditional Gulf connections could retain them even after security conditions improve, potentially altering traffic flows through Dubai and other major regional hubs.
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