Gulf crude exports rebounded sharply in June, led by record shipments from the United Arab Emirates as cargoes delayed by disruption around the Strait of Hormuz moved back into international markets and eased pressure on oil prices.Exports from Gulf producers rose by more than 3 million barrels per day from May to above 10 million bpd in June, vessel-tracking data showed. The recovery was driven by a surge in UAE crude and condensate shipments to about 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd, more than 1 million bpd above May levels and higher than its previous peak recorded in 2020.
The rebound marked a major shift for oil markets after weeks of restricted movement through the world’s most sensitive energy chokepoint. The Strait of Hormuz carries a large share of seaborne crude and liquefied natural gas, making any disruption there a direct threat to prices, shipping costs and refinery supply chains across Asia and Europe.
The June 17 US-Iran agreement, which halted fighting and reopened the main Gulf shipping route, allowed tankers to clear a backlog that had built up through the spring. Ship traffic through the strait rose to its strongest level since the conflict began, with 98 tankers passing in the final week of June. Floating storage in the region, which had climbed to about 96 million barrels in late April, began falling as cargoes reached buyers.
The UAE’s role in the rebound reflects both immediate market conditions and a longer-term policy shift. Abu Dhabi has invested heavily in upstream capacity, export infrastructure and storage, while seeking more flexibility over production policy. Its crude capacity has expanded from about 3.1 million bpd in 2016 to nearly 4.4 million bpd in 2026, with additional condensate and natural gas liquids capacity supporting broader export volumes.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company issued multiple crude sale tenders in June, offering grades such as Upper Zakum, Umm Lulu and Das for loading between June and August. The tenders signalled a more assertive sales strategy at a time when refiners were looking for secure and non-sanctioned barrels after months of disruption.
Saudi Arabia also raised exports in June, with shipments reaching about 4.52 million bpd. Weekly averages moved closer to pre-conflict levels as Gulf producers restored loading schedules and shipping confidence improved. Iraq and Kuwait each exported roughly 800,000 bpd during the month, while Iran lifted exports to about 640,000 bpd as sanctions restrictions eased under temporary arrangements.
Despite the strong month-on-month increase, Gulf exports remained well below pre-war levels. Volumes were still about 40 per cent lower than before the conflict, underscoring the scale of disruption that hit regional output, shipping and refinery operations. Earlier estimates showed crude production across countries bordering the Strait of Hormuz had fallen by roughly 10 million bpd in April compared with February.
Oil prices responded quickly to the return of Gulf barrels. Brent crude moved back towards pre-conflict levels as supply fears faded and traders reassessed the risk premium attached to Middle East shipping. Forecasts for Brent were revised lower as analysts factored in stronger Hormuz flows, higher export availability and softer demand signals in parts of Asia.
China’s independent refiners were among the main buyers of discounted Middle Eastern crude as cargo availability improved. Refiners in Shandong province purchased barrels from Abu Dhabi, Iraq, Qatar and Saudi Arabia at discounts that widened as supplies increased. The shift also put pressure on sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude, which had benefited earlier from tighter Gulf availability.
The export surge comes at a delicate time for producer strategy. Several OPEC+ members had already been preparing to revive supply before the war disrupted shipping and delayed planned increases. The restoration of Gulf flows gives producers more room to lift output, but it also raises the risk of excess supply if demand growth remains uneven.
Topics
Spotlight