Gas tankers go dark near Hormuz

Qatar’s attempt to restart liquefied natural gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed a central pillar of global energy trade into murkier waters, as tankers sail through a war zone with tracking signals switched off, altered routes and rising reliance on negotiated passage.

The shift marks a sharp break from normal maritime practice in a trade built on transparent vessel tracking, predictable scheduling and high-value cargoes moving under strict safety rules. For buyers in Pakistan, China, Japan, South Korea and India, the immediate issue is supply. For the wider market, the concern is whether emergency shipping behaviour around Hormuz becomes a durable feature of gas trade.

Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, has been under pressure to move cargoes stranded after the conflict involving Iran severely restricted access through the narrow waterway. Ras Laffan, the country’s LNG hub, is central to its export system, while most of its cargoes must pass through Hormuz before reaching customers in Asia and Europe. Nearly one-fifth of global LNG trade normally moves through the strait, with Qatar accounting for the overwhelming share.

The latest signs of resumed flows have not restored normality. The Al Kharaitiyat became one of the first Qatari LNG carriers to exit the strait after the disruption, heading towards Pakistan. It was followed by the Mihzem, also bound for Pakistan’s Port Qasim, and the Fuwairit, which crossed the waterway after loading at Ras Laffan. Another gas carrier, Umm Al Ashtan, reappeared on ship-tracking systems after being untraceable for weeks and was later seen moving towards India.

These voyages have eased some pressure on buyers but raised fresh questions about how far producers and shipowners are willing to bend established maritime norms. Automatic Identification System signals are meant to help prevent collisions and allow authorities, insurers and traders to monitor vessel movements. Turning them off can reduce exposure to hostile targeting, but it also makes traffic harder to track in one of the world’s most congested and strategically sensitive waterways.

Before the war, daily vessel movements through Hormuz averaged about 125 to 140. Traffic later fell to a fraction of that level, with oil and gas vessels stranded inside the Gulf and thousands of seafarers left in uncertain conditions. Maritime agencies and shipowners have warned that crew safety remains a serious concern, particularly as missile, drone and projectile incidents around Gulf waters have blurred the line between commercial shipping risk and direct military exposure.

Iran’s control over parts of the transit process has added another layer of uncertainty. Tankers have moved through approved corridors, with some vessels using northern routes close to Iranian waters and others appearing to take paths nearer Oman’s coast. Permission-based movement has replaced the open-flow model that usually governs commercial traffic through the strait. That has left charterers, insurers and cargo buyers dealing with a patchwork of approvals, delays and security calculations.

The disruption has also changed the commercial map of LNG. Qatar’s long-term contracts remain a stabilising force, but buyers that rely on flexible cargoes are looking harder at alternatives from the United States, Australia, Africa and Russia. Thailand has moved to accelerate LNG supply talks with US producers, while Japan and other Asian importers are watching Australian output closely amid labour risks at major facilities. Russia’s LNG exports have risen this year, despite sanctions pressure, offering another sign that geopolitics is reshaping flows.

For Europe, the timing is awkward. The bloc has been trying to reduce dependence on Russian energy while also managing gas price volatility and winter storage needs. A sustained constraint on Qatari LNG would complicate that transition, even though Europe receives a smaller share of Hormuz-linked LNG than Asia. Asian buyers face the sharper exposure because Qatar’s supply structure is heavily oriented towards long-term contracts across the region.

Insurance is becoming one of the decisive factors. War-risk premiums, crew protections and liability questions can determine whether a cargo moves at all. Even when a vessel successfully exits Hormuz, owners must weigh whether a return voyage is commercially and legally defensible. A single LNG carrier represents a large financial exposure, and its cargo is more technically demanding than crude oil or refined products because it must be kept at extremely low temperatures.