Qatar National Bank expects the ASEAN-6 economies to keep expanding well above the global average in 2026, even as geopolitical tensions, energy risks and trade-policy uncertainty weigh on the outlook for emerging markets.The bank’s latest assessment places Southeast Asia’s six largest economies — Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines — among the stronger growth centres in the global economy. It sees the group benefiting from favourable demographics, resilient domestic consumption, deeper regional integration and rising investment in technology, advanced manufacturing and digital infrastructure.
QNB expects Southeast Asian economies to grow by 4.2% in 2026, after an estimated 5.0% expansion in 2025. That pace would still stand comfortably above the global growth projection of just above 3%, underscoring the region’s relative strength at a time when the world economy is facing renewed pressure from conflict, protectionism and tighter supply conditions.
The bank identified a prolonged US-Israel-Iran conflict as the most immediate downside risk to the region’s economic outlook. A wider disruption affecting the Strait of Hormuz would expose ASEAN-6 economies to higher energy import costs, increased production expenses and renewed inflation pressure. The waterway carries around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies and about 85% of Asia’s energy imports, making it a critical channel for countries dependent on imported fuel.
Higher energy prices would have uneven effects across the ASEAN-6. Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines would be more vulnerable to import-cost pressures, while Indonesia and Malaysia could draw some support from their commodity and energy-linked sectors. Still, the broader impact of sustained price increases would be felt through transport costs, food prices, manufacturing margins and household purchasing power.
QNB’s report said the group entered 2026 on firm ground after stronger-than-expected growth in 2025. Vietnam led the bloc with an 8.0% expansion, its second-highest annual growth rate since 2011, supported by manufacturing, tourism, exports and foreign direct investment. Indonesia grew by 5.1%, helped by domestic demand, while Malaysia expanded 5.2%, supported by digital-sector investment and export momentum.
Singapore benefited from global investment in artificial intelligence-related infrastructure and large-scale projects, reinforcing its role as a financial, logistics and technology hub. The Philippines sustained steady growth on the back of consumption, services and remittance inflows, while Thailand remained the laggard because of household debt, weaker competitiveness in some manufacturing segments and slower structural reform.
A key source of resilience is the shift in trade and investment patterns across the region. ASEAN-6 economies have benefited from supply-chain diversification as global companies reduce excessive reliance on China and expand production across Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. Electronics, electric vehicles, semiconductors, cloud services and digital platforms have attracted capital into new industrial corridors.
Regional integration has also strengthened the outlook. Intra-ASEAN trade, upgraded trade frameworks and deeper links with China, South Korea and other Asian partners are helping reduce dependence on a single export market. QNB noted that the share of US-bound value-added exports has fallen from roughly one-third of total exports to about 20%, giving the bloc more room to absorb external shocks.
Trade policy remains a risk. Washington’s investigations into excess industrial capacity among trading partners, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, have created uncertainty for export-heavy economies. Vietnam and Malaysia face particular scrutiny because of their role in supply chains that may be used for transshipment of Chinese goods. Any new tariff measures could alter investment decisions and pressure exporters already operating on thin margins.
China’s slower demand is another challenge. The country remains a major market for ASEAN industrial output, commodities and intermediate goods. A weaker Chinese recovery would affect manufacturers, tourism flows and commodity exporters, although domestic consumption and intra-regional demand could help cushion the slowdown.
Inflation has stayed subdued across much of the ASEAN-6, preserving room for central banks and fiscal authorities to support growth if external conditions deteriorate. Lower inflation also supports household spending, which remains one of the bloc’s strongest buffers. Rising urbanisation, expanding middle-class consumption and young working-age populations continue to underpin demand for housing, transport, digital services, finance and healthcare.
Technology investment is emerging as a structural growth driver. Data centres, artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductor assembly, electric vehicle supply chains and digital financial services are attracting both domestic and foreign capital. Malaysia and Singapore are positioned strongly in data infrastructure, Vietnam continues to gain from electronics manufacturing, and Indonesia is drawing investment linked to batteries, nickel processing and digital platforms.
QNB’s view points to a region that is slowing but not losing momentum. Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to remain the most resilient performers because of their scale, investment inflows and strong domestic demand. Thailand’s recovery is likely to remain constrained without faster reform, while Singapore’s prospects will depend on global technology spending, financial flows and trade stability.
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