Washington and Tehran are moving through a fragile diplomatic channel shaped as much by Iran’s internal security arrangements as by the substance of a proposed deal, with US officials assessing that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s isolation is slowing exchanges at a decisive stage.American intelligence assessments say Khamenei is operating from an undisclosed location and communicating through a courier network designed to conceal his whereabouts. The arrangement has complicated efforts to transmit proposals, secure responses and clarify points of disagreement in talks with the Trump administration over a framework intended to ease the confrontation around Iran’s nuclear programme and the Strait of Hormuz.
The core difficulty is procedural but politically significant. Messages sent to Tehran’s leadership are understood to move through intermediaries before reaching Khamenei, while replies take time to return through the same protected chain. Senior figures in Tehran are said to have limited direct access to him, leaving negotiators with less flexibility than would normally be expected during high-pressure diplomacy.
The delay has become more sensitive because Washington believes a draft framework has gained approval in principle from Khamenei, even as final agreement remains unsettled. President Donald Trump has signalled that he expects a response within days, while senior US officials have cautioned that the process could take longer if Tehran’s internal consultations remain slow.
The draft under discussion centres on a phased arrangement that would address Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, sanctions relief and restrictions linked to maritime access. One version would involve Iran disposing of or transferring highly enriched uranium under verifiable conditions before Washington lifts key penalties or eases its blockade-related measures. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil and gas shipments, is among the economic and strategic issues tied to the talks.
Tehran has acknowledged negotiations but has pushed back against suggestions that a full settlement is imminent. Its position reflects a familiar divide between tactical engagement and ideological resistance, made sharper by the role of Khamenei, whose authority remains central to any binding decision. Iran’s leadership is also balancing pressure from hardline factions, the military establishment and a public facing economic strain from sanctions, conflict costs and disruption to energy revenues.
Khamenei’s position has carried added uncertainty since he succeeded his father, Ali Khamenei, after the latter was killed during US-Israeli strikes earlier this year. His limited public profile and reported injury in the opening phase of the conflict have increased speculation about how decisions are being made inside Tehran. Public appearances have been scarce, while official statements have sought to project continuity and defiance.
For the Trump administration, the talks offer a possible route to reduce military risk without granting Tehran relief before verifiable steps are taken. Washington’s approach rests on insisting that sanctions relief follows compliance, not promises. That sequencing is meant to answer criticism from US lawmakers and regional allies who fear Iran could use negotiations to gain time, preserve leverage and rebuild capacity.
Israel remains a central factor in the diplomatic equation. Its government has argued that any agreement must eliminate Iran’s ability to advance towards a nuclear weapon and prevent Tehran from using regional proxies to regain strategic advantage. Israeli concerns extend to Hezbollah and wider security arrangements in Lebanon, where any settlement touching Iran’s regional posture would face immediate scrutiny.
Energy markets have reacted sharply to signs of movement in the talks because the Strait of Hormuz handles a major share of seaborne oil flows. A credible agreement that reduces risk in the waterway could ease pressure on crude prices, shipping insurance and Gulf trade routes. Failure, by contrast, would keep markets exposed to military incidents, naval restrictions and retaliatory steps by Tehran.
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