Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear programme indefinitely, a claim that immediately lifted hopes of a broader settlement in the war and helped drive oil prices sharply lower after Tehran announced commercial traffic could resume through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the political and diplomatic picture remained unsettled on Friday, with Iranian officials signalling that key nuclear disputes with Washington were still unresolved and rejecting at least part of Trump’s account.
The latest turn appeared to mark a shift from weeks of military escalation towards an uneasy bargaining phase. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said passage for all commercial vessels through Hormuz was “completely open” for the remaining period of the ceasefire, though he added that shipping would move along routes coordinated by the Ports and Maritime Organisation of Iran. A senior Iranian official separately told Reuters that vessels would still need clearance through channels overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, underlining that the reopening is conditional rather than a full return to normal maritime traffic.
Trump’s remarks went further than anything publicly acknowledged by Tehran. In an interview with Reuters, he said the United States would work with Iran to recover enriched uranium and bring it back to the United States, and he described a broader agreement as moving quickly. He also said the United States would maintain its naval blockade until an accord is finalised. That portrayal was met with an immediate rebuttal from Tehran. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, told state television that Iran’s enriched uranium would not be transferred anywhere and that sending it to the United States had not been an option.
That contradiction goes to the heart of the dispute. For Washington, curbing Iran’s stockpile and limiting any path to a weapon-grade capability remains the central objective. For Tehran, retaining sovereign control over its nuclear material and preserving what it says is a peaceful civilian programme remain core red lines. Reuters also reported on Friday that a senior Iranian official said significant differences still remained between Tehran and Washington, including over nuclear issues, and that more talks would be needed before any durable peace agreement could be reached.
Independent verification remains another major obstacle. The International Atomic Energy Agency said in its latest report that it had not been able to fulfil its obligations under Iran’s safeguards agreement in relation to facilities affected by military attacks and could not verify whether Iran had suspended activities required under earlier Security Council resolutions. The agency also said it could not confirm the nature and purpose of activities seen through satellite imagery at affected sites such as Natanz and Fordow without direct access. That leaves a gap between political declarations and verifiable facts on the ground.
Markets nevertheless reacted as though the immediate risk of a wider supply shock had eased. Brent crude settled down about 9% at $90.38 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell more than 11% to $83.85, after traders responded to the Hormuz reopening and signs of movement in the talks. Around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass through the strait, making any reopening highly significant for energy markets, shipping insurers and import-dependent economies.
Still, the relief was tempered by operational caution. Reuters reported that only designated lanes judged safe by Iran would be open, naval vessels would remain excluded, and concerns persisted over mines and the practical security of transit. Shipping groups and commercial operators have sought further clarification before treating the route as fully normalised. Even with traffic resuming, analysts say physical supply chains will take time to recover because disrupted cargoes, damaged infrastructure and delayed loading schedules cannot be reversed overnight.
The wider conflict has already imposed a heavy cost. Reuters, citing analysts and Kpler data, said more than $50 billion worth of crude oil had gone unproduced during 50 days of war, with over 500 million barrels of crude and condensate lost. Onshore inventories have fallen, regional refining and gas infrastructure have been hit, and some of the damage may take months or even years to repair. Against that backdrop, Trump’s assertion of a looming diplomatic breakthrough has commercial as well as strategic weight.
The latest turn appeared to mark a shift from weeks of military escalation towards an uneasy bargaining phase. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said passage for all commercial vessels through Hormuz was “completely open” for the remaining period of the ceasefire, though he added that shipping would move along routes coordinated by the Ports and Maritime Organisation of Iran. A senior Iranian official separately told Reuters that vessels would still need clearance through channels overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, underlining that the reopening is conditional rather than a full return to normal maritime traffic.
Trump’s remarks went further than anything publicly acknowledged by Tehran. In an interview with Reuters, he said the United States would work with Iran to recover enriched uranium and bring it back to the United States, and he described a broader agreement as moving quickly. He also said the United States would maintain its naval blockade until an accord is finalised. That portrayal was met with an immediate rebuttal from Tehran. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, told state television that Iran’s enriched uranium would not be transferred anywhere and that sending it to the United States had not been an option.
That contradiction goes to the heart of the dispute. For Washington, curbing Iran’s stockpile and limiting any path to a weapon-grade capability remains the central objective. For Tehran, retaining sovereign control over its nuclear material and preserving what it says is a peaceful civilian programme remain core red lines. Reuters also reported on Friday that a senior Iranian official said significant differences still remained between Tehran and Washington, including over nuclear issues, and that more talks would be needed before any durable peace agreement could be reached.
Independent verification remains another major obstacle. The International Atomic Energy Agency said in its latest report that it had not been able to fulfil its obligations under Iran’s safeguards agreement in relation to facilities affected by military attacks and could not verify whether Iran had suspended activities required under earlier Security Council resolutions. The agency also said it could not confirm the nature and purpose of activities seen through satellite imagery at affected sites such as Natanz and Fordow without direct access. That leaves a gap between political declarations and verifiable facts on the ground.
Markets nevertheless reacted as though the immediate risk of a wider supply shock had eased. Brent crude settled down about 9% at $90.38 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell more than 11% to $83.85, after traders responded to the Hormuz reopening and signs of movement in the talks. Around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass through the strait, making any reopening highly significant for energy markets, shipping insurers and import-dependent economies.
Still, the relief was tempered by operational caution. Reuters reported that only designated lanes judged safe by Iran would be open, naval vessels would remain excluded, and concerns persisted over mines and the practical security of transit. Shipping groups and commercial operators have sought further clarification before treating the route as fully normalised. Even with traffic resuming, analysts say physical supply chains will take time to recover because disrupted cargoes, damaged infrastructure and delayed loading schedules cannot be reversed overnight.
The wider conflict has already imposed a heavy cost. Reuters, citing analysts and Kpler data, said more than $50 billion worth of crude oil had gone unproduced during 50 days of war, with over 500 million barrels of crude and condensate lost. Onshore inventories have fallen, regional refining and gas infrastructure have been hit, and some of the damage may take months or even years to repair. Against that backdrop, Trump’s assertion of a looming diplomatic breakthrough has commercial as well as strategic weight.
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