The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries attributes the downward revision to reduced capital spending in exploration and production activities outside the OPEC+ alliance. This trend is particularly evident in the United States, where shale output growth projections have been lowered from 400,000 bpd to 300,000 bpd. The slowdown in non-OPEC+ supply growth may assist OPEC+ in stabilizing the market, which has been under pressure due to unplanned increases in OPEC+ output and trade uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs.
Brent crude prices have fallen below \$66 a barrel, approaching levels last seen in 2021. Despite this, OPEC has maintained its global demand growth forecast, anticipating a rise of 1.3 million bpd in 2025. The organization notes that a new 90-day U.S.-China trade agreement could eventually stabilize trade flows, potentially supporting demand.
April crude production among OPEC+ members declined by 106,000 bpd, with Kazakhstan recording the largest cut amid efforts to align with production quotas. Other reductions came from Iran, Libya, and Nigeria.
The reduction in non-OPEC+ supply growth forecasts underscores the challenges faced by producers outside the alliance. Falling oil prices and reduced capital spending have constrained their ability to increase output. This situation may provide OPEC+ with an opportunity to exert greater influence over the market, particularly as it plans to boost output by 411,000 bpd in June for the second consecutive month.
Market observers are closely monitoring these developments, as the balance between supply and demand remains delicate. While OPEC+ aims to stabilize prices through coordinated production adjustments, the effectiveness of these measures will depend on various factors, including global economic conditions and geopolitical developments.
In the United States, shale producers are maintaining production at approximately 13.2 million bpd as of May 2025, with disciplined capital deployment reflecting investor preferences for returns over growth. Rig counts in major basins like the Permian have stabilized around 350, approximately 30% below 2019 peaks despite comparable price levels. Investment patterns show notable restraint compared to previous price cycles, with capital expenditures for major shale operators remaining approximately 25% below 2019 levels when adjusted for inflation.
Other major non-OPEC+ producers, such as Brazil, Canada, Norway, and Guyana, continue to contribute to global supply growth. Brazil's production has exceeded 3.6 million bpd, with plans to reach 4.2 million by 2027. Canada maintains steady production growth through optimized oil sands operations, with total output approaching 5 million bpd. Norway's Continental Shelf has defied depletion expectations with the successful Johan Sverdrup field, which reached full capacity of 755,000 bpd in 2023. Guyana represents a significant growth story, increasing from zero commercial production in 2019 to over 600,000 bpd in 2025, with plans to reach 1.2 million bpd by 2027.
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