Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers , expanded by 4.3% compared to March 2024, with international capacity growing by 6.1%. This increase in capacity reflects the industry's response to the heightened demand and the need to accommodate the growing volume of air cargo traffic.
The Asia-Pacific region led the charge, with airlines in this area reporting a 14.3% year-on-year growth in demand. This surge is largely driven by the robust e-commerce sector, which has seen a significant uptick in direct-to-consumer shipments, particularly from China. Experts estimate that e-commerce now accounts for more than 50% of air cargo volumes out of Asia, underscoring the sector's pivotal role in the industry's expansion.
Middle Eastern carriers also reported strong performance, with a 19.9% increase in demand. The Middle East–Europe market was particularly robust, experiencing a 38.3% growth, followed by the Middle East–Asia market, which grew by 19.6%. These figures highlight the strategic importance of the Middle East as a hub for air cargo, facilitating trade between Asia, Europe, and beyond.
In contrast, North American carriers saw a modest 0.9% year-on-year growth in demand, the weakest among all regions. This tepid growth is attributed to various factors, including market saturation and shifts in trade patterns. However, the North America–Europe trade lane grew by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating some positive movement in transatlantic trade.
European carriers experienced a 10.0% year-on-year growth in demand, with intra-European air cargo rising by 24.7%. The Europe–Middle East routes saw demand grow by 38.3%, while Europe–North America expanded by 2.9%. These figures suggest a dynamic and evolving European air cargo market, responding to both regional and intercontinental trade demands.
The global economic environment also played a role in shaping air cargo demand. In March, the manufacturing output Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 51.9, indicating expansion. The new export orders PMI also rose to 49.5, remaining slightly below the 50 threshold that would indicate growth expectations. Inflation rates presented a mixed picture: in the European Union and Japan, inflation rates decreased to 2.6% and 2.7% respectively, while increasing in the USA to 3.5%. China experienced a slight deflation of -0.01%, marking a return to deflation after February's brief period of inflation.
Looking ahead, IATA projects a 5.8% growth in air cargo volumes for 2025, aligning with historical performance. However, the industry faces potential challenges, including geopolitical shifts and trade policy changes. The Trump administration's announced intention to impose significant tariffs on top trading partners—Canada, China, and Mexico—could disrupt global supply chains and impact air cargo demand. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, emphasized the need for the air cargo industry to adapt to these unfolding geopolitical shifts.
In response to the growing demand, airlines are adjusting their strategies. The annual growth in industry ACTKs for March was almost exclusively driven by bellyhold capacity, which recorded the 35th month of consecutive double-digit growth in March with 20.6% year-on-year. In contrast, international cargo capacity on dedicated freighters rose by a modest 1.2% year-on-year. This shift indicates a strategic move by airlines to maximize the use of existing passenger aircraft for cargo purposes, optimizing efficiency and capacity utilization.
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