The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reaffirmed its prediction for a significant increase in global oil demand throughout 2024. In its latest monthly report, OPEC anticipates a rise of 2. 25 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, aligning with its previous assessment. This projection extends to 2025, with an expected growth of 1. 85 million bpd.
OPEC attributes this optimistic outlook to several factors. The organization cites growth in key markets, particularly China, India, the Middle East, and Latin America. They highlight a resurgent demand for air travel and road transport, including trucking, as major drivers behind the anticipated surge.
The report acknowledges the inherent uncertainties surrounding this forecast, particularly regarding global economic developments throughout the year. Despite these potential headwinds, OPEC suggests a continuation of economic expansion, with oil demand projected to climb by a robust 2. 3 million bpd in the latter half of 2024. The organization identifies the services sector, especially travel and tourism, as a critical driver of economic growth in the coming months, further bolstering oil consumption.
Furthermore, OPEC maintains its global economic growth forecast of 2. 8% for 2024 and 2. 9% for 2025, consistent with its prior assessments. This aligns with their belief in a sustained economic upturn that will contribute to the projected rise in oil demand.
It's important to note that OPEC's forecast stands in contrast to predictions from some other industry experts. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which primarily represents industrialized nations, holds a more cautious perspective regarding oil demand growth in 2024, estimating an increase of only 1. 1 million bpd. This discrepancy partly stems from differing views on the pace of the global transition towards cleaner energy sources.
OPEC's decision to maintain production cuts also plays a significant role in the oil market landscape. The OPEC+ alliance, which includes OPEC and non-member oil producers like Russia, has implemented a series of output reductions since late 2022 with the aim of supporting market stability. In June, the group agreed to extend its current production cut of 2. 2 million bpd until the end of September, with a gradual phase-out over the following quarter.
Moving forward, it will be crucial to monitor how global economic conditions, geopolitical developments, and the ongoing energy transition all influence oil demand and production strategies.