The longstanding duopoly in commercial aircraft manufacturing, held by Boeing and Airbus, could face a serious challenger within the next decade, according to Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Walsh, speaking at a recent IATA briefing in Dubai, acknowledged the current dominance of Boeing and Airbus, but emphasized the potential of China's Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) to disrupt the market. He pointed to ongoing supply chain issues plaguing the aviation industry as a potential advantage for COMAC. These issues, he predicted, could persist until 2027, creating an opportunity for COMAC to establish itself.
"While it will take time for COMAC to become a true competitor on the global scale, " Walsh said, "I believe they will eventually get there. "
COMAC's rise presents both challenges and opportunities for airlines. The increased competition could lead to more competitive pricing and a wider variety of aircraft options. However, airlines may also face concerns regarding safety certifications and the long-term reliability of COMAC's jets, which are still relatively new entrants in the market.
COMAC has made significant strides in recent years, developing its own line of commercial aircraft, including the ARJ21 regional jet and the C919 narrowbody aircraft. The C919, seen as COMAC's main competitor to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, has yet to receive crucial international certifications, but has already secured orders from several Chinese airlines.
The potential disruption from COMAC comes at a time when Boeing is grappling with ongoing issues related to the 737 MAX grounding and production slowdowns. Airbus, on the other hand, has continued to ramp up production, but both companies are facing pressure from ongoing supply chain disruptions.
While Boeing and Airbus currently hold a dominant market share, analysts suggest that COMAC's growing capabilities and China's vast domestic market could significantly alter the landscape within the next decade. The success of COMAC will depend on its ability to address safety concerns, obtain international certifications, and build trust with airlines outside of China.
The next ten years will be crucial in determining whether COMAC can establish itself as a legitimate rival to Boeing and Airbus, or if it remains a primarily regional player. The outcome will have a significant impact on the global aviation industry, shaping aircraft availability, pricing, and competition for decades to come.