Egypt's economic prospects received a significant boost recently as S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country's credit outlook from "stable" to "positive." This positive revision signifies a growing confidence in Egypt's economic trajectory, fueled by a combination of recent economic reforms and a surge in foreign investment.
The upgrade comes alongside S&P maintaining Egypt's long- and short-term credit ratings at "B-/B." While this rating indicates a moderate level of creditworthiness with ongoing risks, the positive outlook suggests a potential for improvement in the near future.
According to S&P, two key factors underpinned their decision. Firstly, the Egyptian government's commitment to a policy of exchange rate liberalization has been viewed favorably. By allowing the Egyptian Pound to fluctuate more freely based on market forces, the hope is to attract greater foreign investment and boost overall economic activity.
Secondly, S&P acknowledged the Egyptian government's ambitious fiscal consolidation plans. These plans aim to reduce the country's budget deficit and manage its debt burden more effectively. While these measures may lead to some short-term economic adjustments, S&P believes they will ultimately contribute to long-term economic stability.
However, S&P's outlook is not without its reservations. The agency predicts that Egypt's economic growth will likely moderate to around 3% in 2024. This slowdown is attributed to several factors, including limited foreign currency availability, high inflation rates, and a tight monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Egypt.
Despite the projected slowdown, S&P expresses optimism for a rebound in 2025 and beyond. They anticipate that increased foreign currency inflows, a result of the relaxed exchange rate controls, will ease import restrictions and stimulate economic activity. Additionally, if the government's fiscal consolidation efforts prove successful, it could further enhance Egypt's creditworthiness and unlock opportunities for future investment.
The recent credit outlook upgrade serves as a positive signal for Egypt's economic future. It indicates that the country's commitment to economic reforms is starting to gain recognition from international financial institutions. However, sustained efforts are required to address ongoing challenges and unlock Egypt's full economic potential.