Bitcoin's largest holders are rebuilding their positions, with on-chain data showing a substantial reduction in net selling since July, although broader market indicators continue to signal uncertainty over the cryptocurrency's direction.Figures from blockchain analytics company CryptoQuant show that the one-year change in whale holdings improved from approximately minus 282,000 bitcoin in July to minus 39,000 bitcoin during October. The shift represents an improvement of roughly 243,000 bitcoin over less than three months.
The figures indicate a significant change in the behaviour of investors controlling substantial cryptocurrency balances. However, the annual measure remains negative, meaning whale holdings have not yet returned to year-on-year growth.
CryptoQuant's October 13 research showed that whale balances, excluding exchange and mining-pool addresses, had reached approximately 3.03 million bitcoin, their highest level since November 2025. Monthly balance growth had accelerated to its fastest pace since February.
The company also identified strengthening institutional participation. United States spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds had registered approximately $1.5 billion in cumulative net inflows for 2026, reversing an earlier position of $5.1 billion in net withdrawals.
The improvement has encouraged comparisons with the accumulation patterns preceding bitcoin's 2023 recovery. Market commentator Wealthmanager has highlighted similarities between the cryptocurrency's current consolidation and its earlier price structure.
Such comparisons remain interpretations rather than evidence that another sustained rally is imminent. Changes in large-holder balances provide information about investor positioning but cannot independently establish the direction or magnitude of future price movements.
CryptoQuant's October 27 market assessment offered a more cautious perspective. The company found that overall spot demand had weakened, despite the improvement in holdings among major investors.
Its 30-day apparent demand measure stood at approximately minus 76,000 bitcoin on October 25, following a brief improvement during September. The negative reading suggested that buying activity was insufficient to absorb available supply consistently.
The company's analysis also identified persistent weakness in demand from United States investors. Its Coinbase Premium indicator, which measures price differences between Coinbase and other trading platforms, remained negative throughout the first 25 days of October.
The indicator fell to minus 0.146 on October 24, its lowest reading since June 30. Sustained negative premiums can indicate weaker purchasing interest among investors using the American exchange.
Bitcoin traded around $80,000 during the period covered by the assessment, below the approximately $87,000 reached during the earlier recovery. CryptoQuant calculated that October was heading towards a monthly decline despite the traditionally stronger seasonal performance associated with the month.
The contrasting indicators demonstrate why improving whale accumulation does not necessarily translate immediately into rising prices. Large investors may increase their holdings while other market participants reduce exposure, limiting the effect on overall demand.
CryptoQuant's October 13 assessment had identified a substantial improvement in its Bull Score Index, which combines ten market and blockchain indicators. The measure increased from 20 in late July to 90 in September before settling at 80.
The company interpreted those readings as consistent with an emerging bullish market phase. Its subsequent demand assessment, however, indicated that the recovery had encountered obstacles, particularly among buyers participating directly in spot markets.
Differences between categories of large holders also complicate the picture. Analysis published during October showed that addresses controlling between 100 and 1,000 bitcoin had continued accumulating, while activity among larger groups was less consistent.
Addresses holding more than 10,000 bitcoin were showing negative balance changes in the period examined. These variations suggest that accumulation was not uniformly distributed across investors classified as whales.
CryptoQuant has also examined borrowing activity among cryptocurrency holders. Data supplied by lending platform CoinRabbit showed that borrowers with bitcoin-backed loans exceeding $10 million increased their combined Tether borrowing by 83% during September.
Average loan sizes within that category increased by 33%, indicating greater borrowing against existing cryptocurrency holdings. Such activity can provide liquidity without requiring investors to sell their bitcoin, although it also introduces collateral and liquidation risks.
Smaller borrowers followed a different pattern. CoinRabbit recorded a 17% decline in total borrowing among customers with loans below $100,000 during September, suggesting that participation had not broadened equally across investor categories.
CryptoQuant's research distinguishes between movements into private wallets, exchange balances and actual market purchases. Transfers between addresses can reflect custody arrangements rather than investment decisions, making the classification of wallet activity important when interpreting changes in holdings.
The company's October assessment also placed bitcoin's 365-day moving average near $80,000 and its 200-day moving average around $71,000, levels used by traders to monitor prevailing price trends.
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Cryptocurrency